MSTR Teeters Below $95, But Benchmark Targets Record $570 Share Price

Benchmark Equity Research on Monday reiterated its Buy rating and $570 price target on Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR ), implying roughly 515% upside.

Strategy’s New Framework Lets Saylor Run The Capital Machine In Reverse Strategy shares closed up 12.6% to $92.68 Monday after the company unveiled its Digital Credit Capital Framework, which raised $1.15 billion by selling MSTR shares without buying a single Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

The proceeds boosted Strategy’s USD reserve to $2.55 billion, stretching dividend coverage from roughly 10 months to 17.4 months.

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the framework formally gives management permission to run Strategy’s capital machine in reverse during periods of stress.

That includes repurchasing common and preferred shares, monetizing Bitcoin to meet obligations, and pausing share issuance when MSTR no longer trades at a premium to its net asset value. “Taken together, the five pieces of Strategy’s plan describe a company moving from one-way issuance to active two-way capital management,” Palmer wrote.

He added that fears the company could aggressively dump Bitcoin overlook scale, calling the $1.25 billion sale authorization a “rounding error” against Strategy’s 847,363 BTC treasury.

Crypto Banter Says Saylor Timed The MSTR Sale Almost Perfectly Analyst Ran Neuner noted that Strategy sold MSTR shares at almost exactly a 1.0 mNAV, meaning the stock traded at the same value as its underlying Bitcoin holdings at the moment of sale.

Selling at that level avoided diluting existing shareholders the way a sale executed further below mNAV would have.

Ran said the move effectively tells the market Strategy can sit still for 17 months without needing to touch its Bitcoin stack, removing the immediate uncertaintly around dividend coverage that had been weighing on both MSTR and STRC.

STRC had fallen to $71.26 before the weekend and recovered to $81 following the announcement.

Why Strategy Needs This Framework Now? Strategy unveiled the framework after Bitcoin closed Sunday below its 200-week moving average for the first time since October 2023, a break that came as MSTR shares had fallen roughly 30% over the prior week and STRC dropped below $80.

Ran flagged several on-chain signals supporting a bottoming thesis: realized profit and loss approaching capitulation lows, long-term holders beginning to sell after holding through previous cycles, and nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows in June.

He said the outflows historically mark bottoms rather than tops since ETF flows tend to be a contrarian indicator.

He estimated Bitcoin bottoms somewhere between $45,000 and $55,000 over the next two to three months.

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