FOMC Hawks
Nationwide's Bostjancic says inflation and consumer spending support FOMC hawks' argument for a rate hike this year
25 June 2026 Higher energy prices again pushed up headline inflation last month, but with oil prices plummeting back to below $70/barrel (WTI oil) we estimate headline inflation has peaked and will trend lower in the second half of the year, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, wrote Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic following the release of May PCE data.
Importantly, core inflation may stay at this peak level for another month and only gradually trend lower in the second half of the year, lending support to the hawkish members of the FOMC to argue for at least one rate hike this year.