Lander Surges

New York Rep.

Dan Goldman is the kind of establishment politician who typically cruises through a Democratic primary election.

Yet Goldman is fighting for his political life, with former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander capitalizing on the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping through Democratic primaries nationwide, and endorsements from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen.

Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.

The race has many features, including a referendum on Mamdani's pull in the party and voter division over Israel, and it is also a test of the New York Democratic Party's longtime alliance with organized labor.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Dan Goldman cruises to re-nomination in Tuesday's Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district.

Scandal-free, two-term incumbent representatives who maintain a community presence, stay out of the national media spotlight and vote nearly entirely in line with their party rarely see bruising challenges from among their own ranks.

And yet, Goldman finds himself in the midst of what has turned into an ugly, contentious battle for his political life.

Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who finished a distant third in the Democratic primary for city mayor last year — after a cross-endorsement with Mayor Zohran Mamdani that consolidated the progressive vote — hopes to capitalize on the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping through Democratic primaries nationwide.

With endorsements from progressive figures like Mamdani and Sen.

Bernie Sanders , I-Vt., and organizations like the New York Working Families Party, Lander has sought to position himself distinctly to Goldman's left.

Indeed, Lander's candidacy serves as one of several crucial tests for Mamdani's political influence to come this Tuesday, as well as a high-profile benchmark for how much division over Israel influences election outcomes among Democrats.

Lander boasted the Mamdani endorsement on the very first day of his candidacy in December, before the new mayor had even been sworn in. "[Brad] has been a trusted ally and partner of mine, and I'm proud to support him," Mamdani stated . "I know he'll keep delivering for those who need government to show up for them the most." In the 12th-most leftward-leaning congressional district in the country, one that backed Mamdani by nearly 25 percentage points in November's mayoral general election, this message seems to be striking a chord.

There are a limited number of polls covering the race, and they are split, but a recent Emerson College poll showed Lander holding a staggering 34-point lead over Goldman.

Prediction markets believe the race has already been decided in Lander's favor, with his odds on Kalshi nearing 100% .

As it became clear the race was going to be a tight one, Goldman — a Levi Strauss heir and one of the wealthier members of Congress — pledged to match up to $1 million in campaign donations .

To claw back lost ground, Goldman also has attempted to seize on an issue that has long been at the heart of American progressivism — a strong alliance with organized labor.

Around 20% of workers in New York City are union-affiliated, doubling the nationwide rate .

For political contests across the city, this fact makes unions key electoral allies, with multiple candidates often jostling to prove they have the most demonstrated appreciation for the concerns and priorities of labor.

Throughout the past month, one of these labor concerns has become a key point of contention in the race — Lander's noted opposition to Section 485-x of the New York State Real Property Tax Law.

Section 485-x, which replaced New York state's long-standing Section 421-a statute in April 2024, provides tax incentives for up to 40 years for developers seeking to erect affordable housing.

It also establishes strict wage floors and mandatory annual wage increases for construction workers building this housing.

Construction work on 485-x-eligible sites with at least 100 units must offer a minimum wage of $40 an hour to all respective workers.

Construction work on buildings with over 150 units must offer a minimum wage of either $63 an hour or $72.45 an hour, depending on the construction zone, or a relative percentage of the zone's greatest prevailing wage .

Additionally, the wages themselves are subject to 2.5% annual increases.

However, for sites with fewer than 100 units, none of the aforementioned requirements apply under 485-x, making construction of housing developments of 99 units or less enticing for developers.

In a forum with New York Law School last month, Lander stated, "I think that the governor gave in to the building trades, and, as a result, no new housing is being produced under that program." "[With] the cockamamie approach they put in [485-x], with different zones and a made-up wage level, they created a whole new bureaucracy in order for the governor to satisfy the building trades, and now no new housing is being built," he added.

Goldman wasted no time trying to make the most of his opening. "My opponent says he's the true progressive in this race, which is interesting, because he clearly has a problem with our city's labor unions," the congressman noted in a late May Facebook post . "Last week in a forum, he blamed the building trades for … our housing crisis in New York City," he wrote. "That doesn't seem very much like pro-labor to me; that doesn't seem very progressive." The Lander campaign insists this loophole has resulted in a lack of affordable housing and a devaluation of construction work standards.

In a recent statement to Spectrum News 1 , a Lander spokesperson said, "Brad has criticized the 485x program because it's just not working to build affordable housing or to protect workers and everyone knows it.

It's strange for elected officials or labor union officials to be defending a program in which 99% of the developments have taken advantage of a loophole that requires zero affordable housing or good jobs." Build