United Airlines Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Scott Kirby Say?

United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ: UAL ) CEO Scott Kirby pitched a merger to American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL ) in April and got publicly turned down.

Three months later, traders give him just a 15% chance of even saying the words “American Airlines” on Thursday’s earnings call.

That is one of a dozen phrases being handicapped on Kalshi ahead of the report from United, due Thursday at 10:30 a.m.

ET.

Wall Street expects profit to roughly halve, with consensus near $1.84 per share against $3.87 a year ago, after the war with Iran sent jet fuel soaring.

What Kalshi Predicts Kirby Will Say “Starlink” is at 93%.

United is racing the satellite WiFi onto its fleet and promises free service on every plane by the end of 2027, so Kirby rarely misses a chance to mention it. “Record” sits at 85% after United flew a record three million passengers over Memorial Day weekend, part of a summer expected to bring more than 53 million travelers. “Newark” trades at 69%, and this year the word is a boast rather than an apology.

After last spring’s radar outages, the airport has posted the best on-time numbers of any major Northeast airport in 2026, and Kirby now calls it the crown jewel of United’s network. “World Cup” matches it at 69%, with Sunday’s final kicking off 15 miles from that hub.

The Cost Question “Oil” trades at 68% and rose 4 points Wednesday, because the fuel problem is getting worse, not better.

The US-Iran memorandum signed last month is fraying, with American strikes on Iran running three straight days and Brent crude at a one-month high near $86.

That puts fresh scrutiny on Kirby’s April comments, when he told analysts United would keep roughly 20% of its fare increases if fuel normalized, a share that may grow toward 80% the longer the conflict runs.

Rep.

Ritchie Torres accused the airline of planning to pocket the savings. “Union” is at 31%.

The flight attendant contract took effect May 31, adding 31% average raises and $741 million in retro pay to United’s costs.

The airline showed its answer Tuesday, unveiling A321XLR cabins capped at exactly 150 seats by blocking two middle seats, a number that happens to cut the required crew from five flight attendants to four.

Reading The Board Traders expect a victory lap on Newark, careful answers on fuel and labor, and silence on the merger.

Delta beat estimates Friday and airline stocks fell anyway, with United down roughly 11% this month.

What Kirby needs to sell is that expensive fuel is a toll, not a trend.

Analysts have been raising price targets into the report.

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