Netflix Q2 Preview: Stock Hasn't Been This Cheap in 21 Months, But Analysts Are Growing Cautious

Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX ) looks to win back investors, with shares at two-year lows ahead of second-quarter earnings on Thursday after market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.

Netflix Q2 Earnings Estimates Analysts expect Netflix to report second-quarter revenue of $12.58 billion, up from $11.08 billion in last year’s second quarter, according to data Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in nine of the last 10 quarters, including two straight quarters.

Analysts expect Netflix to report second-quarter earnings per share of 79 cents, up from 72 cents per share year-over-year.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven of the last 10 quarters, but missed estimates in the most recently reported first quarter.

Read Also: Evercore’s Beat and Raise 4: Why Nvidia, Alphabet, Netflix and Booking May Finally Catch a Bid What Experts Are Saying With a cautious tone from investors ahead of earnings, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris maintains a Buy rating on Netflix with a price target of $120.

The analyst said three key items to watch are core financial and engagement trends, how new initiatives like live sports and short-form content are impacting engagement, and addressing questions on M&A plans.

Morris says there are concerns about the 2H26 slate compared to the 2H25 slate, which featured seasons of "Stranger Things," "Squid Game" and "Wednesday.

The analyst expects the conversation to be about sports for the second half of 2026.

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said Netflix stock has "had quite the volatile year." With the company the subject of a bidding war for Warner Bros.

Discovery and concerns over future growth, Netflix stock is now down 43% from all-time highs, Woods said.

The market expert says Netflix stock has fallen after its last four earnings reports by an average of 6.75%. "Recent sentiment has been subdued as investors look for signs that growth can reaccelerate heading into the second half of the year," Woods said in a weekly newsletter. "Watch for news on the advertising business and engagement trends across the platform.

The ad-supported tier remains one of management’s biggest growth initiatives." Woods said the Netflix chart shows a potential "critical moment" for the stock based on the five-year weekly and lifetime charts.

The stock is testing its monthly uptrend, something that has happened on a few occasions in company history. "If shares break the $70 threshold, look for a leg lower over the coming months and a test of its major trend around $57.50.

Near-term we need $70 to hold and look for a rally into the low $80s." Woods said the post-earnings stock trading trends could be a big test and show that "Netflix is a falling star and lost its luster." Here are recent analyst ratings on Netflix stock and their price targets: Morgan Stanley: Reiterated Overweight rating, lowered price target from $115 to $90 Rosenblatt: Maintained Neutral rating, with price target $95 Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, lowered price target from $110 to $85 Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $120 to $100 KeyBanc: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $115 to $92 Key Items to Watch Netflix no longer breaks out subscriber figures, which means the report will likely be heavily on other key financial metrics like revenue and average revenue per subscriber.

The report could also include an update on the ad-supported subscriber figure, if it passed any milestones.

Expect the streaming giant to focus heavily on its live sports programs, such as the Ma y MMA event with MVP Promotions that set new records, and this week’s MLB Home Run Derby.

The company will also likely highlight its second-half content lineup, which includes more live sports, anchored by four NFL games.

Netflix Stock Price Action Netflix stock is up 0.6% to $74.00 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $70.86 to $127.75.

Netflix stock is down 18.7% year-to-date in 206 and down 41.3% over the last year.

Netflix shares are trading at levels last seen in October 2024, 21 months ago.

Read Also: Netflix Stock A Buy After Walking Away From Warner Bros.: Analyst Calls It A 'Healthy Organic Growth Story' Image via Shutterstock