RBC Tweaks Estimates for Commerzbank Pre-Q2 Earnings

RBC Capital Markets adjusted its model for Commerzbank (CBK.F), making marginal changes to its earnings projections ahead of the German lender's second-quarter results due Aug. 6. "We expect CBK to reiterate its 2026 guidance (and 2030 targets), to update on capital distribution as it did with previous Q2 results and [UniCredit's (UCG.MI)] increase in the CBK stake to feature in the discussions when CBK reports. Our PT remains unchanged [at 43 euros]," the research firm said Tuesday. Analysts noted their full-year 2026 net interest income estimate remains close to management's guidance of 8.6 billion euros. For the second quarter, RBC expects net interest income to edge up 1% quarter over quarter to 2.07 billion euros, driven by replication portfolio gains and continued volume expansion, albeit at a softer pace than previous quarters. On the capital distribution front, the research firm expects a 1 billion-euro buyback application, assuming Commerzbank follows the previous year's timeline and half-year/full-year split. "Our estimates remain largely unchanged, with a higher share price slightly dilutive to EPS. Our Outperform recommendation comes with a Speculative Risk.