Iran War to Delay Global LNG Oversupply to 2028, BloombergNEF Analysis Shows

The ongoing Middle East conflict and delays in major projects have pushed an anticipated liquefied natural gas supply glut by a year, with oversupply now projected in 2028, according to an analysis by BloombergNEF Tuesday. Global LNG supply surplus is expected to peak in 2031-2032, with many new projects likely to come online, according to BNEF's global LNG outlook. Last year's report had projected a glut from 2027. The Iran conflict is expected to result in a temporary decline in supply this year from producers UAE and Qatar. However, overall supply from the Middle East was projected to record a 50% jump to 147 million tons by the end of the decade and to 153.8 million tons by 2035, it said. Qatar's LNG production over the coming years remains uncertain due to war-related damage to two production trains and delays to expansion projects, with future output depending on the repair timeline for the damaged facilities and the start of new projects. QatarEnergy may accelerate production to compete with US LNG as the spot market moves into oversupply, the report said. Meanwhile, the war is expected to support Asian LNG spot prices through next year, with an easing expected.