Inflation Likely Turned Negative in June Amid Lower Energy Prices, Goldman, UBS Say
US consumer inflation likely turned negative in June on a monthly basis as energy prices pulled back, Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities said. Oil and gasoline prices have retreated as the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal in June. However, crude prices, which posted gains last week amid escalating US-Iran tensions, rallied on Monday as President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ports. Goldman Sachs projects the consumer price index to fall 0.1% month over month for June, reflecting lower energy prices. Core inflation likely rose 0.17% and 2.76% annually, the brokerage said in a weekly update emailed to on Monday. Official data on Tuesday are expected to show that the headline CPI dropped 0.1% in June on a sequential basis and rose 3.8% annually, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. Wall Street is projecting core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.9% annually. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that inflation risks had eased. The Fed kept its policy rate steady last month for the fourth consecutive meeting following a series of rate cuts last year. UBS.
US consumer inflation likely turned negative in June on a monthly basis as energy prices pulled back, Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities said.
Oil and gasoline prices have retreated as the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal in June.
However, crude prices, which posted gains last week amid escalating US-Iran tensions, rallied on Monday as President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Goldman Sachs projects the consumer price index to fall 0.1% month over month for June, reflecting lower energy prices.
Core inflation likely rose 0.17% and 2.76% annually, the brokerage said in a weekly update emailed to on Monday.
Official data on Tuesday are expected to show that the headline CPI dropped 0.1% in June on a sequential basis and rose 3.8% annually, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus.
Wall Street is projecting core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.9% annually.
Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that inflation risks had eased.
The Fed kept its policy rate steady last month for the fourth consecutive meeting following a series of rate cuts last year.
UBS.